GTA Home Sales and Prices Expected to Remain Stable in 2026 Amid Ongoing Affordability Pressures

02/04/2026

TRREB Releases Highly-Anticipated 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review Report

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review report highlights a housing market shaped by improved buyer choice and affordability, alongside cautious consumer sentiment across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

The report finds that elevated supply levels are expected to keep price growth in check through 2026, while overall home sales activity is forecast to remain within a similar range compared to the last three years, with the potential for improvement later in the year if the economy remains resilient and consumer confidence strengthens.

This year’s sought-after report and interactive digital digest include new Ipsos consumer polling results, insights into homebuying intentions, and TRREB’s outlook on home sales and average prices, alongside research examining housing supply, migration, and affordability pressures across the region.

The 2026 Outlook
For 2026, TRREB forecasts:

• GTA home sales will range between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions. Market activity in the first half of the year is expected to resemble 2025 levels, as many households remain cautious about committing to long-term mortgage payments. If economic prospects and consumer confidence improve in the second half of the year, pent-up demand from the past several years could begin to be satisfied.

• The GTA average price forecast range for 2026 is between $1 million and $1.03 million. Elevated inventory levels across most market segments are expected to continue providing buyers with substantial negotiating power, particularly in the condominium apartment market. Average selling prices will likely be lower year-over-year in the first half of 2026 before stabilizing in the second half, if buyers start moving off the sidelines and market conditions tighten.

The Ipsos Home Buyers Survey found that GTA homebuying intentions for 2026 declined by five percentage points compared to 2025, to 22 per cent, despite improved affordability. This highlights challenges with consumer confidence vis-à-vis current economic uncertainty.

Despite softer overall buying intentions, first-time buyers could be a key driver of recovery in the months ahead. Ipsos polling shows that 45 per cent of intending homebuyers in 2026 will be first-time buyers, underscoring the importance of attainable ownership options.

Ipsos research also points to sustained rental demand across the GTA in 2026, supported in part by continued immigration, with many newcomer households renting before transitioning into homeownership.

Despite improved affordability in the homeownership market, Ipsos found that renter households face a gap of nearly $600 per month between affordable mortgage payments and the mortgage payments required to purchase the type of home they want. This affordability gap may result in many households remaining in the rental market longer than anticipated.

” The housing market reflects the tension many households are feeling as we look ahead to 2026. Affordability has improved, but uncertainty continues to weigh on long term decisions like homeownership. Greater economic clarity in the months ahead could restore confidence and help unlock demand that has been building for several years,” said TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld.

“With the cost of borrowing flattening out, affordability gains in 2026 will largely be seen on the pricing front, as buyers continue to benefit from negotiating power. A boost in consumer confidence could see buyers move off the sidelines later this year, which could provide support for home prices as market conditions tighten up,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer.

The report also includes new research examining the impacts of population growth and migration, traffic congestion, and policy challenges affecting housing delivery across the region, along with recommendations aimed at addressing planning delays, development costs, and barriers within Ontario’s housing and infrastructure systems.

“At TRREB, we focus on actions that can make the greatest impact,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “That means pursuing innovative, future-facing solutions, including planning systems that approve building housing more efficiently, a tax environment that supports affordability, and a long-term commitment to purpose-built rental construction. These elements help create a balanced and predictable housing market, and this increases consumer confidence.”

The 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review Report covers all aspects of the GTA real estate market, including trends for new homes and condominiums, as well as a review of the commercial real estate market.

For more insights, head to the digital digest and download the full report.

TRREB is also releasing January 2026 statistics and its latest monthly Market Watch publication.

There were 3,082 home sales reported in January 2026 – down by 19.3 per cent compared to January 2025. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 10,774 – down by 13.3 per cent year-over-year.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) Composite benchmark was down by eight per cent year-over-year in January 2026. The average selling price, at $973,289, was down by 6.5 per cent compared to January 2025.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, January 2026 home sales were down month-over-month compared to December 2025, while new listings were up slightly. Both the MLS® HPI composite and average price trended lower compared to December.